Application of the Risk Model to Africa Sub-Group Configurations
Application of the Risk Model to Africa Sub-Group Configurations
Beyond the application of the risk model to our initial sample of 30 African countries, we also undertook separate estimates of the various effects on regional community groupings. We first did separate regression estimates for sub-samples of Francophone and Anglophone African countries. We then did further estimates for four regional economic groupings, namely, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), for the West African Economic Community (ECOWAS), for the Southern Africa Development community (SADC), and for the Central African Economic Union (UDEAC). We note that since we have used membership only for our sample of countries rather than resampling for complete membership in these configurations, our estimates should be interpreted as indicative rather than comprehensive.
Our model points to the negative effect of international aid on real per capita GDP. While we see it as contributing to aggregate country risk, we have not pursued a more detailed analysis of its separate effects on the various determinants of income, since some (e.g. Sachs 2005) have argued for an increase in international aid to help the lowest income countries in Africa in such strategic areas as health, we do not rule out the possibility that aid could play such a role. However, as long as international aid continues to serve larger political objectives, we remain skeptical as to its constructive role in raising levels of per capita income.